{"id":187436,"date":"2026-06-29T07:53:42","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T13:23:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newslink360.space\/?p=187436"},"modified":"2026-06-29T07:53:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T13:23:42","slug":"track-2-that-wasnt-india-pak-back-channels-water-wars-and-a-hardening-red-line-point-blank-with-shishir-gupta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newslink360.space\/?p=187436","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Track 2\u2019 that wasn\u2019t: India-Pak back channels, water wars, and a hardening red line | Point Blank with Shishir Gupta"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"storyParagraphFigure\">\n<p class=\"content\">In a recent edition of Hindustan Times\u2019 Point Blank, Executive Editor Shishir Gupta sat down with anchor Aayesha Varma to dissect reports of fresh back-channel contacts between India and Pakistan, and the escalating controversy over the Indus Waters Treaty.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"artImage leadImage\"><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FWVvJ_vgq04?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p><figcaption class=\"\">Point Blank with Shishir Gupta<span\/><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">At first glance, the story looks familiar: non\u2011official meetings in neutral locations, Western officials in attendance, and a flurry of media speculation about \u201cTrack 2 diplomacy\u201d easing tensions between the <a class=\"backlink\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/india-news\/honey-trap-chats-plans-to-marry-jem-commander-in-pakistan-behind-jaipur-womans-arrest-101782452336442.html\" data-vars-page-type=\"story\" data-vars-link-type=\"Manual\" data-vars-anchor-text=\"two nuclear\u2011armed neighbours\" rel=\"noopener\">two nuclear\u2011armed neighbours<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Gupta\u2019s assessment is blunt: most of what has appeared in the media is, in his view, a Pakistani disinformation campaign designed to project the existence of a back channel that does not, in fact, exist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Two meetings did take place, one in Colombo and another in Bangkok, but crucially, \u201cthere was presence of no serving Indian official\u201d in either. Retired Indian intelligence and foreign service officers and a former army chief did attend, but they were speaking in their personal capacity, not carrying messages from New Delhi.<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<h2>Inside the Colombo and Bangkok meetings<\/h2>\n<p>Gupta notes that the International Institute for Strategic Studies shifted one of its forums to Colombo due to the ongoing Gulf war, and that this gathering acquired a distinctive <a class=\"backlink\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/india-news\/amit-shah-to-visit-india-pak-india-bangla-borders-for-mega-security-review-101779720180712.html\" data-vars-page-type=\"story\" data-vars-link-type=\"Manual\" data-vars-anchor-text=\"India\u2013Pakistan flavour.\" rel=\"noopener\">India\u2013Pakistan flavour.<\/a> On the Indian side, the participants were retired officials, including one former intelligence officer and several diplomats who had handled the Pakistan\u2013Iran\u2013Afghanistan desk in the Ministry of External Affairs, alongside a retired army chief.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">The Pakistani contingent looked very different.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">It included:<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<ul>\n<li>A serving Pakistani diplomat handling South Asia.<\/li>\n<li>Three army officers with past association with the Inter-Services Intelligence.<\/li>\n<li>An official dealing with Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gupta adds that a US State Department official, Paul Kapoor, possibly joined the group for dinner, and four UK officials and four US officials were present in the forum more broadly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">This raises, in his view, an obvious question. What exactly were US and UK officials doing in a dialogue focused on a Gulf war agenda but containing three India\u2013Pakistan modules: water, escalation of tensions and crisis management?<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">A second meeting in Bangkok gathered four Indians: two strategic writers known for their Western orientation, and two former PIA\u2011desk officials who had served as ambassadors to Pakistan. This dialogue was funded by Ottawa University, a fact Gupta finds puzzling: \u201cone can&#8217;t understand why would Ottawa University be interested in India\u2013Pakistan relations.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Both meetings were labelled \u201cTrack 1.5\u201d or \u201cTrack 2\u201d in some reporting, but Gupta insists this is misleading. There was no official Indian presence. The retired participants \u201cwere just espousing their own views\u201d and \u201cdefinitely do not have any access to what is currently going on in the government&#8221;. Under normal Chatham House rules, such discussions remain confidential. Yet, this time, the details leaked, fuelling speculation that Islamabad was eager to sell the impression of a functioning back channel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">As Gupta summarises it, \u201cas far as India goes, India has nothing to do with these dialogues,\u201d and the government\u2019s policy line remains untouched by what is, at best, an informal talking shop accompanied by \u201csome good food and some good wine&#8221;.<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<h2>Indus Waters Treaty: From technical accord to flashpoint<\/h2>\n<p>If the Colombo and Bangkok meetings were largely theatre, the controversy around the <a class=\"backlink\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/india-news\/covering-up-its-own-failings-india-shreds-pakistans-will-go-to-war-remarks-khwaja-asif-over-indus-water-treaty-101782212455888.html\" data-vars-page-type=\"story\" data-vars-link-type=\"Manual\" data-vars-anchor-text=\"Indus Waters Treaty\" rel=\"noopener\">Indus Waters Treaty<\/a> is not. Gupta traces the current tensions back to the Pahalgam terror attack \u2014 described as a \u201cmassacre\u201d \u2014 after which India put the Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 under World Bank auspices, in abeyance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">Since then, Pakistan has sought to build an international narrative that India is \u201cweaponising water\u201d against it. The country believes it has gained fresh credibility in international forums after trying to broker understandings between Iran and the US amid the ongoing Gulf war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Gupta points out that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken of Pakistan\u2019s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, as a close friend-reinforcing Islamabad\u2019s perception that \u201cit has the West on its side.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">In this context, Pakistan is trying to \u201cratchet international pressure on India\u201d so that New Delhi reverses its abeyance of the treaty. More striking, however, is the doctrinal twist Pakistan appears to be exploring:<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Under the 1949 Geneva Conventions, warring states are not supposed to target each other\u2019s critical civilian infrastructure, including dams. Pakistan is now arguing that since India is allegedly weaponising water by suspending the treaty, it is within its rights to attack Indian dams in a worst\u2011case scenario. This reframing, Gupta warns, turns the Indus Waters Treaty into \u201cthe new flashpoint&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Once, Kashmir was the primary contested zone; now, the treaty is being positioned as a fresh locus of confrontation and a vehicle to internationalise Kashmir by linking river rights to territorial disputes.<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<h2>A lopsided treaty and a \u201cmoral compass\u201d problem<\/h2>\n<p>Gupta\u2019s criticism of the Indus Waters Treaty is historical and structural. Negotiated in 1960 when Jawaharlal Nehru held the external affairs portfolio, with R.K. Nehru and Subimal Dutt as successive foreign secretaries, the agreement, he argues, is \u201ctotally topsy\u2011turvy\u201d and heavily lopsided in Pakistan\u2019s favour.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<h3>Key points from his critique<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Around 80% of the waters were allocated to Pakistan, leaving India with roughly 20% of the Eastern rivers.<\/li>\n<li>India paid about 52 million pounds for Pakistan to build dams across the Line of Control and the international border.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cFirst, you give them more water. Second, you give them money to put dams, which they hardly need,\u201d Gupta remarks, capturing his view of the treaty as an emblem of India\u2019s tendency to be \u201cmore than fair\u201d to Pakistan.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">This pattern, he argues, has repeated itself:<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<ul>\n<li>After the 1960 treaty, Pakistan ceded the Shaksgam Valley to China in 1963.<\/li>\n<li>Wars followed in 1965 and 1971, and later confrontations such as Kargil.<\/li>\n<li>In 1978, India blocked the sluice gates of the Salal dam in Kishtwar, yet was again \u201chit\u201d subsequently in Kashmir and elsewhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>To Gupta, this reflects a deeper problem: a \u201cweird moral compass\u201d and a malfunctioning \u201cenemy location radar\u201d that has led Indian political leadership to over\u2011accommodate Pakistan despite repeated security setbacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">The current government, he says, has tried to break with this tradition. Since coming to power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has articulated two clear lines:<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">\u201cTerror and talks can\u2019t go together.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">\u201cTerror and water also do not go together.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">India\u2019s position is that normalisation is possible only if Pakistan stops using terror \u2014 or \u201cJihad\u201d \u2014 as an instrument against India. Until then, the abeyance of the IWT and the broader hardening of India\u2019s stance will continue.<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<h2>Pakistan\u2019s constraints and war talk<\/h2>\n<p>In the closing part of the conversation, Gupta is asked a pointed question: can Pakistan actually go to war with India over the Indus Waters Treaty? Pakistani leaders have issued \u201cbombastic statements\u201d about teaching India a lesson and bombing dams, and have carried their campaign to forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the UN and Western capitals.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"content \">Gupta\u2019s answer is unequivocal. Pakistan \u201ccannot afford to go to war against India\u201d and would \u201close very badly\u201d if it tried. He lists Pakistan\u2019s internal and external constraints:<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">The Pakistan\u2013Afghanistan border is \u201con fire,\u201d with recent Pakistani operations provoking Afghan retaliation. There is a full\u2011fledged insurgency in Balochistan, which prevents the effective operation of the Gwadar port. Pakistan faces unrest in Sindh and an active Pakistani Taliban threat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">In Gupta\u2019s reading, Pakistan \u201ccan\u2019t even afford to take on the Taliban in Kabul, let alone go to war with India.\u201d That makes its rhetoric about bombing Indian dams more a tool of pressure and narrative\u2011building than a credible war strategy. The real solution, he insists, \u201cclearly lies in only one thing: stop terrorism, start talking.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class=\"content \">\n<h2>Back channels versus red lines<\/h2>\n<p>Taken together, the leaked IISS dialogues and the Indus Waters dispute highlight a familiar paradox in India\u2013Pakistan relations. Informal conversations between retired officials, academics and Western diplomats continue in hotels and conference rooms from Colombo to Bangkok-and will likely continue under various labels, from \u201cTrack 2\u201d to \u201cTrack 1.5&#8243;.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p class=\"content \">Yet, as Gupta stresses, none of this alters New Delhi\u2019s core red line: No official back channel is running with Pakistan. The Government of India has \u201cno role\u201d in the recent dialogues. Normalisation remains contingent on Pakistan abandoning terrorism as statecraft.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">For now, the Indus river has joined Kashmir as a central pressure point in a relationship defined by asymmetrical risks, competing narratives and a narrowing space for compromise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"content \">Whether quiet conversations in Colombo or Bangkok ever evolve into something more substantive will depend less on Western facilitation and more on whether Islamabad is willing to address the \u201cfundamental issue behind militancy\u201d that Gupta repeatedly returns to: the use of terror and jihad as instruments of policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/india-news\/track-2-that-wasn-t-india-pak-back-channels-water-wars-and-a-hardening-red-line-point-blank-with-shishir-gupta-101782735017040.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a recent edition of Hindustan Times\u2019 Point Blank, Executive Editor Shishir Gupta sat down with anchor Aayesha Varma to dissect reports of fresh back-channel contacts between India and Pakistan,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":187437,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-187436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national-news"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/newslink360.space\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/The-rebuilding-of-Nalanda-University-is-going-to-s_1782736798671_1782736812977_a411256b-d375-429b-85.webp","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":182256,"url":"https:\/\/newslink360.space\/?p=182256","url_meta":{"origin":187436,"position":0},"title":"Bihar\u2019s Akshara Gupta creates history, scores triple century in U-19 One-Day Tournament","author":"Ajay Kumar Verma","date":"June 18, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Akshara Gupta, a young batter from Bihar, created a new milestone in women\u2019s domestic cricket by scoring an unbeaten 306 runs in the BCA Women\u2019s U-19 One-Day Trophy Tournament, which commenced on Thursday at the Sandis Compound Ground in Bhagalpur. 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