From The Hindu Archives, January 21, 1976: CIA was unable to predict Indian nuclear test

Washington, Jan. 20: A post-mortem assessment of the Central Intelligence Agency’s activities abroad has criticised the U.S. intelligence community for failing to predict the underground nuclear test conducted by India in May 1974. This failure, it is said to have admitted, deprived American policymakers of advance warning of the event, which they could have used to “consider diplomatic or other initiatives to prevent this significant step in nuclear proliferation”. The CIA’s “shortcoming” in this instance is  ascribed to its failure to interpret photographs taken by U.S. spy satellites which were later found to have clearly shown India’s nuclear testing facilities.

This CIA self-criticism is said to be contained in documents the agency provided to the House Select Committee on Intelligence, which along with another committee set up by the Senate, is conducting a probe of the CIA. The contents of the House Committee report, though still secret, have found their way into the American press. The report also refers to the agency’s failure to predict other events such as the Russian preparations to oust Alexander Dubcek from power in Czechoslovakia in August 1968, the West Asia war of 1973, the overthrow of Makarios in Cyprus the next year and the military coup in Portugal.  

The report also questions Secretary of State, Dr. Kissinger’s approval of a project to supply weapons to Kurdish rebels in Iraq. Though the CIA itself was against the idea, Dr. Kissinger is said to have ordered it as a favour to the Shah of Iran, who was then feuding with neighbouring Iraq.

Other unsavoury doings of the CIA referred to in the report involve the agency’s indiscriminate use of Government funds.