The EV boom is accelerating a copper crunch

Between 2015 and 2025, global EV sales rose from approximately 0.55 million units to an estimated 20 million units, while associated copper consumption surged from roughly 27.5 thousand tonnes to over 1.28 million tons, showing copper to be the hidden backbone of the EV revolution. However, supply growth has lagged due to decades of underinvestment, declining ore grades, and the 10-15 year development cycle for new mines. Consequently, a structural supply deficit could emerge as early as 2026, reshaping global trade, intensifying geopolitical competition and influencing the cost and the pace of EV adoption. Therefore, the EV transition must be understood not only as a technological shift but also as a resource-intensive transformation constrained by metals as much as by markets.

In near perfect lockstep

One of the most striking features of the electric vehicle (EV) transition is the near one-to-one relationship between EV sales growth and copper demand, as reflected in elasticity estimates.

Between 2016 and 2024, the copper demand elasticity with respect to EV sales mostly exceeded 1.0, indicating that copper consumption increased faster than EV adoption despite sustained efforts to reduce metal intensity. During this period, EV-related copper demand surged from approximately 39,000 tonnes in 2016 to over 1.1 million tonnes in 2024, while global EV sales expanded from approximately 0.75 million units to around 17 million units. The linkage was especially pronounced in 2019, when elasticity peaked at 1.76, signalling a sharp rise in copper use per vehicle — driven by larger battery packs, increased power electronics and rapid charging infrastructure expansion. Although elasticity is projected to ease to approximately 0.90 by 2025, as efficiency gains emerge, the absolute copper demand will continue to rise owing to the scale of EV deployment. With EVs requiring four to five times more copper than internal combustion vehicles and no viable large-scale substitutes available, this synchrony underscores the persistent structural demand pressure. Ultimately, this copper-intensive trajectory, more than battery technology alone, will shape the pace of global electrification.

A global copper deficit phase

While copper demand is rising sharply, global supply has begun to plateau, creating a widening gap often described as a “jaw-opening deficit”. Declining ore grades at existing mines, decade-long development timelines for new projects, and environmental opposition in major producing regions such as Chile, Peru and the United States constrain supply growth. In 2024, global supply is expected to exceed demand by approximately 0.3 million tonnes, but by 2026, demand is projected to reach 30 million tonnes, while supply lags at around 28 million tonnes.

This gap is expected to widen to 4.5 million tons by 2028 and nearly 8 million tons by 2030, equivalent to the output of the world’s 10 largest copper mines combined. Such shortages could increase EV costs, delay the development of charging infrastructure, and strain decarbonisation targets. As electrification accelerates, copper scarcity may become the main bottleneck unless mining, recycling and material innovation are rapidly scaled up.

A reshaping of global market dynamics

The geography of EV-driven copper consumption signals a major shift in the global power balance, with China emerging as the dominant force in electric vehicle adoption and copper usage. China’s EV-related copper demand surged from about 78,000 tonnes in 2020 to nearly 6,78,000 tonnes in 2024 and is projected to reach around 7,80,000 tonnes by 2025, accounting for almost 60% of global EV-based copper consumption. This dominance is driven not only by strong EV sales but also by China’s control of over 70% of global battery cell production and its deeply integrated supply chain.

By 2025, EV-related copper demand is expected to reach approximately 210,000 tonnes in the European Union and 1,14,000 tonnes in the U.S., while India remains modest at roughly 7,200 tonnes. This asymmetry provides China with a structural advantage in terms of pricing power, long-term supply contracts, and strategic leverage over copper-rich regions. As copper becomes central to energy transition, securing access will rival battery technology as a global priority.

The EV revolution is not only reshaping transportation but also the global metals economy. Copper has emerged as a vital artery of electrification, and the world is rapidly approaching a moment when demand outpaces supply in ways that are unprecedented in modern industrial history. Policymakers, investors and environmental planners must recognise that the energy transition is inseparable from resource strategy. Without bold actions on copper supply, recycling, and technological innovation, the pace of electrification will be dictated by geology rather than ambition.

Vipin Benny is a research consultant, an Assistant Professor, and a Research Supervisor at St. Thomas College (Autonomous), Thrissur, Kerala. He is the author of ‘Elevating Excellence: The Relevance of Internal Marketing in Higher Education Institutions in India’ (2023) and ‘Decoded Decisions: Behavioural Finance Meets Artificial Intelligence’ (2025)

Published – January 21, 2026 12:08 am IST