Venezuelan oil crisis may aid Indian energy stocks, but gains won’t be even: Chola Securities

Dharmesh Kant, Head of Research at Chola Securities, said Indian energy companies could see gains from the ongoing Venezuelan crisis, with Reliance Industries emerging as an early beneficiary, while the impact on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) may take longer to play out.“Overall, I think the Venezuelan crisis will be beneficial for the Indian companies,” Kant said. He added that for ONGC, the impact is “more of a one-off kind of event” and will depend on how exploration and production progress over the next one to one-and-a-half years.

Kant said Reliance could benefit faster due to changes in crude sourcing. While some reports suggest a $5–8 per barrel benefit, he expects a lower gain. “My own sense is it would only be $3–4 per barrel,” he said, citing recent currency depreciation. He remains positive on the stock and has set a price target of ₹2,100 for Reliance Industries based on the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) earnings estimates.

Bank of India may see re-rating ahead of BudgetOn the banking sector, Kant said Bank of India could see renewed investor interest. He noted that while most financial updates have been strong across the sector, Bank of India stands out as a potential re-rating candidate.

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“This is one which will again get a re-rating,” Kant said, adding that the stock could see a 10–15% move by the time the Union Budget is announced.

Metals sector outlook positive into 2026

Kant expects 2026 to be supportive for metal stocks, driven by a stable dollar index and the possibility of US rate cuts. He said a 50–75 basis point rate cut in the US could support commodities.“If the company is giving 15–20% kind of profitability growth, why can’t they command a P/E multiple of 12–14,” he said. Among metal stocks, he prefers Hindalco Industries in non-ferrous metals and JSW Steel in the ferrous segment.

Maruti and Eicher preferred in autos

In the automobile sector, Kant pointed to a slowdown in month-on-month two-wheeler sales for major manufacturers such as Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp and TVS Motor.

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However, he highlighted strong performance from Maruti Suzuki and said it remains a preferred stock in the passenger vehicle space. In premium two-wheelers, Kant said Eicher Motors stands out based on recent numbers.

From an investment perspective, he said Maruti Suzuki in four-wheelers and Eicher Motors in two-wheelers remain buy candidates, while other stocks could be added on declines.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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